Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released documents reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.