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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."